2026-10-11
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-11
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | October 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 2.72 ERA: 1.8
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 0.8
K/9: 10.55 K/9: 12.98
BB/9: 1.53 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 2.41 FIP: 2.01
IP: 158.7 IP: 174.7
xERA: 2.94 xERA: 2.13
xwOBA: 0.266 xwOBA: 0.226
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD MIL Lg Avg
Record 100-62 103-59
R/Game 4.94 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 3.70 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.762 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.55 3.51 4.17
FIP 3.54 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.18 1.30
K/9 9.53 9.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.70 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.25
BP K/9 9.88 9.02
BP Quality* 43.1 40.7 46.1
BP IP 448.3 571.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9783 (Temp: 0.9891 | Wind: 0.9891)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 3.1 - MIL 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.1 - MIL 3.9
Win Probability: LAD 40.4% - MIL 59.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +148 / MIL -148
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 6.0: 51.9%
Under 6.0: 37.3%
LAD -1.5: 23.3%
MIL +1.5: 76.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 1.3 - MIL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.3 - MIL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 39.3% - MIL 60.7% (Tie: 22.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +154 / MIL -154
F5 Avg Total: 3.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -107 +148 -11.3%
MIL ML -113 -148 +6.6%
LAD -1.5 +167 +329 -14.1%
MIL +1.5 -204 -329 +9.6%
O 6.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 6.0 -110 N/A -15.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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