2026-10-12
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-12
Games: 2 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | October 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 2.53 ERA: 2.47
WHIP: 0.87 WHIP: 0.84
K/9: 8.85 K/9: 10.07
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 1.74
FIP: 3.22 FIP: 3.29
IP: 185.0 IP: 98.3
xERA: 2.94 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.266 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD MIL Lg Avg
Record 100-62 103-59
R/Game 4.94 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 3.70 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.762 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.55 3.51 4.17
FIP 3.54 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.18 1.30
K/9 9.53 9.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.70 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.25
BP K/9 9.88 9.02
BP Quality* 43.1 40.7 46.1
BP IP 448.3 571.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9916 (Temp: 1.0144 | Wind: 0.9775)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 3.7 - MIL 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.7 - MIL 4.1
Win Probability: LAD 45.2% - MIL 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +121 / MIL -121
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 49.8%
Under 7.0: 39.9%
LAD -1.5: 28.5%
MIL +1.5: 71.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 1.9 - MIL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.9 - MIL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAD 47.1% - MIL 52.9% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +112 / MIL -112
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -142 +121 -13.4%
MIL ML +118 -121 +8.9%
LAD -1.5 +127 +250 -15.5%
MIL +1.5 -154 -250 +10.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -154 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01235
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | October 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Foster Griffin Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 8.24 K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 2.35 BB/9: 1.67
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 2.69
IP: 172.7 IP: 172.0
xERA: 4.35 xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
Record 85-77 98-64
R/Game 4.19 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.77 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.66 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.58 8.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 3.63 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.15
BP K/9 9.94 8.78
BP Quality* 40.8 41.6 46.1
BP IP 540.7 486.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.0 - TB 4.1
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.0 - TB 4.1
Win Probability: CLE 37.7% - TB 62.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +165 / TB -165
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 6.5: 53.7%
Under 6.5: 46.3%
CLE +1.5: 57.0%
TB -1.5: 43.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.5 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.5 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 34.0% - TB 66.0% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +194 / TB -194
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +139 +165 -4.2%
TB ML -169 -165 -0.5%
CLE +1.5 -158 -133 -4.2%
TB -1.5 +130 +133 -0.5%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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