2026-10-13
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-13
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | October 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 2.56 ERA: 4.42
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 9.32 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 3.0 FIP: 4.14
IP: 186.3 IP: 169.0
xERA: 3.15 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
Record 85-77 98-64
R/Game 4.19 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.77 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.66 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.58 8.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 3.63 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.15
BP K/9 9.94 8.78
BP Quality* 40.8 41.6 46.1
BP IP 540.7 486.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.7 - TB 3.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.8 - TB 3.5
Win Probability: CLE 53.1% - TB 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -113 / TB +113
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.0: 44.0%
Under 7.0: 45.4%
CLE +1.5: 71.3%
TB -1.5: 28.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - TB 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.2 - TB 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 59.0% - TB 41.0% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -144 / TB +144
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +110 -113 +5.5%
TB ML -132 +113 -10.0%
CLE +1.5 -205 -249 +4.1%
TB -1.5 +168 +249 -8.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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