2026-10-14
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-14
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | October 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robert Gasser Home: Blake Snell
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 1.9
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.48 K/9: 11.6
BB/9: 2.88 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 1.65
IP: 109.3 IP: 42.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 2.17
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.228
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
Record 103-59 100-62
R/Game 5.14 4.94 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 3.70 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.762 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.55 4.17
FIP 3.58 3.54 4.03
WHIP 1.18 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.61 9.53 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.633 0.629 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.61 3.70 4.05
BP WHIP 1.25 1.28
BP K/9 9.02 9.88
BP Quality* 40.7 43.1 46.1
BP IP 571.0 448.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 3.3 - LAD 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 3.3 - LAD 4.6
Win Probability: MIL 36.6% - LAD 63.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +173 / LAD -173
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 50.7%
Under 7.5: 49.3%
MIL +1.5: 54.6%
LAD -1.5: 45.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 1.4 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.4 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 26.9% - LAD 73.1% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +271 / LAD -271
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML +141 +173 -4.9%
LAD ML -171 -173 +0.3%
MIL +1.5 -157 -121 -6.4%
LAD -1.5 +130 +121 +1.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================