2026-10-15
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-15
Games: 2 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | October 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Jax Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 3.53 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 9.29 K/9: 12.11
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 3.38
IP: 112.3 IP: 184.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
Record 98-64 85-77
R/Game 4.54 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.77 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.66 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.27
BP K/9 8.78 9.94
BP Quality* 41.6 40.8 46.1
BP IP 486.0 540.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9811 (Temp: 0.9893 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.7 - CLE 3.7
Simulated Avg: TB 3.7 - CLE 3.7
Win Probability: TB 49.9% - CLE 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB +100 / CLE -100
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 6.5: 56.9%
Under 6.5: 43.1%
TB +1.5: 68.0%
CLE -1.5: 32.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.1 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.1 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TB 50.0% - CLE 50.0% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -100 / CLE +100
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +108 +100 +1.9%
CLE ML -130 -100 -6.5%
TB +1.5 -216 -213 -0.3%
CLE -1.5 +176 +213 -4.3%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | October 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Tyler Glasnow
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
Record 103-59 100-62
R/Game 5.14 4.94 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 3.70 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.762 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.55 4.17
FIP 3.58 3.54 4.03
WHIP 1.18 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.61 9.53 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.633 0.629 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.61 3.70 4.05
BP WHIP 1.25 1.28
BP K/9 9.02 9.88
BP Quality* 40.7 43.1 46.1
BP IP 571.0 448.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0052 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9931)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 3.9 - LAD 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 3.9 - LAD 4.7
Win Probability: MIL 42.4% - LAD 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +136 / LAD -136
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.5%
Under 7.5: 42.5%
MIL +1.5: 59.1%
LAD -1.5: 40.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.0 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.9 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIL 37.0% - LAD 63.0% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +171 / LAD -171
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +130 +136 -1.1%
LAD ML -157 -136 -3.5%
MIL +1.5 -168 -145 -3.6%
LAD -1.5 +138 +145 -1.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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