2026-10-17
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-17
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | October 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Shawn Armstrong
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 4.58
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 5.45 K/9: 8.66
BB/9: 1.3 BB/9: 4.84
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.26
IP: 180.0 IP: 35.3
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 4.21
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
Record 98-64 85-77
R/Game 4.54 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.77 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.66 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.27
BP K/9 8.78 9.94
BP Quality* 41.6 40.8 46.1
BP IP 486.0 540.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 44°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cold (44°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9570 (Temp: 0.9665 | Wind: 0.9902)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.0 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: TB 4.0 - CLE 3.5
Win Probability: TB 55.2% - CLE 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: TB -123 / CLE +123
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 6.5: 58.0%
Under 6.5: 42.0%
TB -1.5: 37.3%
CLE +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.4 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.4 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TB 58.2% - CLE 41.8% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -139 / CLE +139
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -108 -123 +3.3%
CLE ML -112 +123 -8.0%
TB -1.5 +165 +168 -0.5%
CLE +1.5 -202 -168 -4.1%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +5.6%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -10.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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