2026-10-18
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-18
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | October 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 2.67 ERA: 2.56
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 1.67 BB/9: 2.37
FIP: 2.69 FIP: 3.0
IP: 172.0 IP: 186.3
xERA: 3.06 xERA: 3.15
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
Record 98-64 85-77
R/Game 4.54 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.77 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.66 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.27
BP K/9 8.78 9.94
BP Quality* 41.6 40.8 46.1
BP IP 486.0 540.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9587 (Temp: 0.9807 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.2 - CLE 3.0
Simulated Avg: TB 3.2 - CLE 3.0
Win Probability: TB 51.8% - CLE 48.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -107 / CLE +107
Avg Total Runs: 6.3
Over 6.5: 44.3%
Under 6.5: 55.7%
TB -1.5: 31.8%
CLE +1.5: 68.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.6 - CLE 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.6 - CLE 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 53.7% - CLE 46.3% (Tie: 22.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -116 / CLE +116
F5 Avg Total: 3.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -132 -107 -5.1%
CLE ML +110 +107 +0.6%
TB -1.5 +135 +215 -10.8%
CLE +1.5 -164 -215 +6.1%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 6.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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