2026-10-19
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-19
Games: 1 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | October 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Freddy Peralta
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
Record 85-77 98-64
R/Game 4.19 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.77 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.66 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.58 8.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 3.63 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.15
BP K/9 9.94 8.78
BP Quality* 40.8 41.6 46.1
BP IP 540.7 486.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.7 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.7 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 44.3% - TB 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +126 / TB -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 6.5: 62.0%
Under 6.5: 38.0%
CLE +1.5: 61.7%
TB -1.5: 38.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.2 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 45.0% - TB 55.0% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +122 / TB -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +129 +126 +0.6%
TB ML -156 -126 -5.2%
CLE +1.5 -181 -161 -2.7%
TB -1.5 +149 +161 -1.9%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +9.6%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -14.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 6.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.03%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01236