2026-10-23
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-23
Games: 1 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | October 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 1.8
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 0.8
K/9: 5.45 K/9: 12.98
BB/9: 1.3 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 2.01
IP: 180.0 IP: 174.7
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 2.13
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.226
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB MIL Lg Avg
Record 98-64 103-59
R/Game 4.54 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.51 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.25
BP K/9 8.78 9.02
BP Quality* 41.6 40.7 46.1
BP IP 486.0 571.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 2.9 - MIL 4.7
Simulated Avg: TB 2.9 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: TB 31.0% - MIL 69.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB +223 / MIL -223
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 6.5: 58.1%
Under 6.5: 41.9%
TB +1.5: 48.8%
MIL -1.5: 51.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.2 - MIL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.2 - MIL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TB 25.1% - MIL 74.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +299 / MIL -299
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +154 +223 -8.4%
MIL ML -188 -223 +3.7%
TB +1.5 -156 +105 -12.1%
MIL -1.5 +129 -105 +7.5%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +5.7%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -10.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+129]
Model: 51.2% | Market: 43.7% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -105 | Kelly: 3.33%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01237