2026-10-24
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-24
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | October 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 2.67 ERA: 2.47
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 0.84
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 10.07
BB/9: 1.67 BB/9: 1.74
FIP: 2.69 FIP: 3.29
IP: 172.0 IP: 98.3
xERA: 3.06 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB MIL Lg Avg
Record 98-64 103-59
R/Game 4.54 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.51 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.25
BP K/9 8.78 9.02
BP Quality* 41.6 40.7 46.1
BP IP 486.0 571.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9675 (Temp: 0.9806 | Wind: 0.9867)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.3 - MIL 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 3.3 - MIL 3.9
Win Probability: TB 43.0% - MIL 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB +132 / MIL -132
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 6.5: 54.0%
Under 6.5: 46.0%
TB -1.5: 25.8%
MIL +1.5: 74.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.7 - MIL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.7 - MIL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TB 45.5% - MIL 54.5% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +120 / MIL -120
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +100 +132 -7.0%
MIL ML -120 -132 +2.4%
TB -1.5 +179 +288 -10.1%
MIL +1.5 -220 -288 +5.5%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +1.6%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -6.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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